Traditional market and cryptocurrencies are the result of supply and demand. For several weeks, however, the demand was the lowest on the side of bitcoins and cryptos in general. The first market capitalization dropped by 30 %and dropped below $ 80,000. Ethereum is clearly decreasing by part, the course even lost $ 2,000.
The market is not in great condition, despite the implementation of the BTC strategic reserve in the United States. In particular, this can be explained by the fact that D. Trump’s customs tariffs create economic instability that will not detect investors. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia is also slowly settling. But is the situation in the improvement process for BTC and altcoins? We try to know if capital could go back to risky assets. Let’s!
To return to $ 70,000 per bitcoins?
Bitcoin’s course has broke its range between $ 92,000 and $ 104,000. The sellers rejected their hands on the pitch because BTC draws and Continuation of cavities and descending peaks For several weeks. In addition Institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) is now lower ::
In case of bounceThe course could block against Resistance around $ 92,000 and at a level Mobile medium. And if that is the case, the course could immerse the course toward Round psychological figure $ 70,000. Hope that the blood bath will not continue, it will take and Buyer’s reaction and breaking resistance.
Part of it RSI is down For several months. Therefore they are Sellers who have their hands on dynamicsand finding dynamics will require a change in dynamics Momentum haussier.
Risk off: The dollar finally falls
Dollar weakening, good news for bitcoins and cryptos?
As we know, cryptocurrencies have a historically tending Talk when the dollar falls. And good news for the sector, The dollar index (DXY) weakens. The DXY course has been backward since it is recorded in January:
It seems that the capitals leave this asset considered to the operator as a refuge. And sooner or later if this trend continues, Cryptocurrencies could benefit. Capital could actually go to the stock market as well as bitcoins and altcoins. With regard to the trend, The dollar could drop to support to 101.
The RSI momentum indicator decreases for several weeks. The Momentum is the advantage of bears Unless otherwise proven.
Gold could bounce around $ 2,850
Gold is also one of the refuge and the course shows a Very solid dynamics since the end of 2022. Course is approaching $ 3,000and Institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) Haussier is located around $ 2,850 can continue to be dynamic support For gold:
Despite bull trend clear on gold, Sussetting Signals Start to appear. Actually RSI can no longer record new heights For several months. Fall RSI below 47 it would verify a divergence. Despite everything, it will also need a Changing Structure (Trend Down) If you want to see that gold no longer attracts investors. This apparently does not apply to the moment.
In addition, since the end of 2024,Now Bitcoin is moving ::
Although gold is more efficient for several months than BTC, Since 2023 Bitcoin is to overcome Goldly Gold. Therefore New waves of a decline may be possible on a pair of gold/BTC. However RSI tries to break the trend lineand if the break is confirmed, The couple could speed up. Rejection is still possible, and that would keep fragility.
The US market is defending
S&P 500 could drop to support to $ 5,250
S&P 500 develops on Increase since the end of 2022but recently fell below Supports $ 5,850 and $ 5,650and under mobile diameters 9 and 18. The course shows a dropped by about 10 % from the top ::
If the course cannot clearly iron for Resistance to $ 5,850AND local top It could happen. And in this case, sellers could regain control. If there Resistance to $ 5,650 reject the course, S&P 500 could return to Support for $ 5,250.
RSI indicator verified and divergenceThe buyers are therefore The couples run out. If RSI draws and Damn Under the trend line, Momentum is fragile.
Nasdaq heads for support for $ 18,200
Nasdaq is down almost 15 % from the topand fell below Level 20 300 $. Now, 20 300 $ and Mobiles 9 and 18 horses could block the course:
In case of Rejection around $ 300return to Support for $ 18,200 is possible. But if the course manages to restore Level 20 300 $ As support, and ATH is still possible. In parallel, RSI is fragile and valid and divergence. They are Sellers who have the advantage of momentum In this unit of time. RSI dropped since June 2024.
Key elements to remember
The trend of the Bitcoin course has deteriorated with a loss of $ 92,000 in a 3 -day unit. From now on, if the buyers do not respond quickly, the course could be around $ 70,000. Or a level that has not been affected since November 2024. The dollar index (DXY) has declined, and this is a positive element for crypts. Gold is solid in part, and in the coming weeks it could even record ATH. On the other hand, the US market is repaired. Risk assets do not seem attractive at the moment and also attractive as well as the dollar. Investors seem to turn to gold while macroeconomic uncertainty persists.